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Key Levels
Support
4,252.77 USD
Resistance
4,700.43 USD
Volume & Momentum
Volume
Weak
0.8x avg
Momentum
-0.97%
Medium
Dominant narrative
Emerging markets set for capital inflows as US dollar weakens, gold rises
14 minutes ago
· CryptoBriefing
· Article tone: Neutral
· Model direction: Bullish
If capital shifts toward emerging markets, equities and debt linked to those economies may see buying pressure, while assets tied to a strong dollar could face outflows; the direction depends on how investors reallocate between dollar‑denominated and emerging‑market assets.
Related events
Stories on this asset that a model actually logged a call against.
Model agreement
2 open calls across the models tracking this asset.
Bearish
1 · 50%
Neutral
1 · 50%
The models do not agree. The split is shown rather than a single direction.
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral Rule-Based Analysis Bearish
Verification state
94 of 2758 calls on this asset have reached a verdict
(3%).
Generated
2758
Awaiting evaluation
2
Verified
94
Excluded
2662
How these are scored →
▼
Bearish
1 of 2 open model calls on GOLD lean lower. Average recorded confidence is 60%. Most were logged against a 6h window.
Agreement
1 of 2 open calls
Horizon
6h
Invalidating condition
A sustained move above 4,700.43 USD — the observed resistance level — would remove the basis for this reading.
Rule-Based Analysis
not AI
Bearish
60% conf.
Sep 5 01:00 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Rule-Based Analysis
not AI
Bearish
60% conf.
Sep 4 23:27 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Scored incorrect
Rule-Based Analysis
not AI
Bearish
60% conf.
Sep 4 22:31 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Scored incorrect
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Neutral
71% conf.
Sep 4 11:50 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Scored correct
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Bearish
62% conf.
Sep 3 23:11 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Scored incorrect
Timezone
America/Chicago
Over the last 30 days, AI sentiment for GOLD skewed neutral (59 of 142 scored calls). The most accurate provider on this asset is Rule-Based Analysis at 36.5% across 85 verified calls.
Provider track record
Rule-Based Analysis
31/85 verified calls
36.5%
Mistral Small Latest
2/4 verified calls
Insufficient sample · n=4
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
1/3 verified calls
Insufficient sample · n=3
Confidence trend
57%
▲
16.3 pts vs previous week
Avg confidence across 24 calls in the last 7 days
What sources say
Neutral
59 articles
Bitcoin News: BTC to Gold Ratio Hits 18 as Both Assets Rally
Dutch central bank pulls 86 tonnes of gold from US and Canada amid geopolitical anxiety
Gold Drops 5.5% From 3-Month High but Goldman Sachs Still Sees 10% Upside
Bullish
47 articles
Gold’s run isn’t yet done
This Was the Best-Performing Asset Class in August
Bitcoin Is Trading Like Gold, Not the Nasdaq — And Right Now That's the Problem
Bearish
36 articles
Talk is growing of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Will geopolitics throw a spanner in the works?
Mexican Billionaire Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1.86 Million. What’s His Logic?
Central banks buy 23 tonnes of gold in July, led by China
Every call logged on GOLD, traced from the source that triggered it to the outcome it was scored against.
Rule-Based Analysis
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 5, 2026 01:00
Direction Bearish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 4,477.20
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Talk is growing of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Will geopolitics throw a spanner in the works?
Affected assets
GOLD
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-04 22:00
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Reference price
4,477.2
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Rule-Based Analysis
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
free-analysis-rule-based-analysis #299424
Rule-Based Analysis
Verified
Sep 4, 2026 23:27
Direction Bearish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 4,477.90
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Incorrect
-0.02%
Evidence
Claim
Mexican Billionaire Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1.86 Million. What’s His Logic?
Affected assets
BTC, COIN, GOLD
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-04 20:27
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Reference price
4,477.9
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Incorrect · -0.02%
Provenance
Provider Rule-Based Analysis
Model version
free-analysis-rule-based-analysis
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
free-analysis-rule-based-analysis #299379
Rule-Based Analysis
Verified
Sep 4, 2026 22:31
Direction Bearish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 4,475.50
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Incorrect
+0.04%
Evidence
Claim
Central banks buy 23 tonnes of gold in July, led by China
Affected assets
GOLD
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-04 19:31
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Reference price
4,475.5
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Incorrect · +0.04%
Provenance
Provider Rule-Based Analysis
Model version
free-analysis-rule-based-analysis
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
free-analysis-rule-based-analysis #299313
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Verified
Sep 4, 2026 11:50
Direction Neutral
Confidence 71%
Reference price 4,526.80
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Correct
-0.97%
Evidence
Claim
Bitcoin News: BTC to Gold Ratio Hits 18 as Both Assets Rally
Affected assets
COIN, MSTR, MARA, NEM, GOLD
AI inference
Neutral · 71%
Generated
2026-09-04 08:50
AI inference
Neutral · 71%
Reference price
4,526.8
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Correct · -0.97%
Provenance
Provider GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Model version
openai/gpt-oss-120b
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
groq-openai/gpt-oss-120b #299220
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Verified
Sep 3, 2026 23:11
Direction Bearish
Confidence 62%
Reference price 4,526.20
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Incorrect
-0.02%
Evidence
Claim
Dutch Central Bank cuts US gold reserves amid geopolitical unrest
Affected assets
NEM, GOLD, GDX
AI inference
Bearish · 62%
Generated
2026-09-03 20:11
AI inference
Bearish · 62%
Reference price
4,526.2
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Incorrect · -0.02%
Provenance
Provider GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Model version
openai/gpt-oss-120b
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
groq-openai/gpt-oss-120b #298863
Mistral Small Latest
Verified
Sep 3, 2026 07:00
Direction Bullish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 4,471.60
Verification window 24h
Outcome
Correct
+1.00%
Evidence
Claim
Gold’s run isn’t yet done
Affected assets
NEM, GOLD
AI inference
Bullish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-03 04:00
AI inference
Bullish · 60%
Reference price
4,471.6
Verification window
24h
Actual outcome
Correct · +1.00%
Provenance
Provider Mistral Small Latest
Model version
mistral-small-latest
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
mistral-small-latest #299121
Rule-Based Analysis
Verified
Sep 3, 2026 05:07
Direction Bullish
Confidence 30%
Reference price 4,451.60
Verification window 24h
Outcome
Correct
+1.56%
Evidence
Source
Technical analysis pipeline
Claim
Bullish reading on GOLD
Affected assets
GOLD
AI inference
Bullish · 30%
Reference price
4,451.6
Verification window
24h
Actual outcome
Correct · +1.56%
Provenance
Provider Rule-Based Analysis
Model version
rule-based-analysis
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
rule-based-analysis #298067
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 2, 2026 20:44
Direction Neutral
Confidence 60%
Reference price 4,422.60
Verification window 7d
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Dutch central bank pulls 86 tonnes of gold from US and Canada amid geopolitical anxiety
Affected assets
GDX, NEM, GOLD
AI inference
Neutral · 60%
Generated
2026-09-02 17:44
AI inference
Neutral · 60%
Reference price
4,422.6
Verification window
7d
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #297508
2758 calls logged on GOLD, newest first. Nothing is filtered out.
Logged model predictions for GOLD
Logged
Provider
Direction
Confidence
Reference price
Evaluated price
Lifecycle
Outcome
Sep 5, 2026 01:00
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 60%
4,477.20
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 23:27
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 60%
4,477.90
4,477.20
Verified
Incorrect
-0.02%
Sep 4, 2026 22:31
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 60%
4,475.50
4,477.20
Verified
Incorrect
+0.04%
Sep 4, 2026 11:50
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Neutral 71%
4,526.80
4,483.00
Verified
Correct
-0.97%
Sep 3, 2026 23:11
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Bearish 62%
4,526.20
4,525.30
Verified
Incorrect
-0.02%
Sep 3, 2026 07:00
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 60%
4,471.60
4,516.40
Verified
Correct
+1.00%
Sep 3, 2026 05:07
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 30%
4,451.60
4,521.00
Verified
Correct
+1.56%
Sep 2, 2026 20:44
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 60%
4,422.60
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 2, 2026 13:44
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
4,358.10
4,414.50
Verified
Correct
+1.29%
Sep 2, 2026 05:22
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Bearish 75%
4,349.10
4,371.70
Verified
Incorrect
+0.52%
Sep 2, 2026 03:12
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,378.00
4,432.50
Verified
Incorrect
+1.24%
Sep 1, 2026 09:54
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
4,470.60
4,416.70
Verified
Incorrect
-1.21%
Sep 1, 2026 02:55
Mistral Small Latest
Bearish 90%
4,504.10
4,475.90
Verified
Incorrect
-0.63%
Sep 1, 2026 02:51
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,493.80
4,376.80
Verified
Incorrect
-2.60%
Aug 31, 2026 22:02
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,477.80
4,378.10
Verified
Correct
-2.23%
Aug 31, 2026 20:33
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,482.70
4,394.90
Verified
Correct
-1.96%
Aug 31, 2026 16:01
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 60%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 31, 2026 14:12
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 70%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 31, 2026 09:04
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,484.40
4,492.50
Verified
Incorrect
+0.18%
Aug 31, 2026 08:19
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,469.20
4,479.30
Verified
Incorrect
+0.23%
Aug 31, 2026 04:16
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 60%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 31, 2026 04:00
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Bullish 63%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 31, 2026 02:58
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 80%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 30, 2026 19:26
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 60%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 28, 2026 17:07
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,656.30
4,529.90
Verified
Incorrect
-2.71%
Aug 28, 2026 14:27
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,648.20
4,529.90
Verified
Correct
-2.55%
Aug 28, 2026 13:37
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 60%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 28, 2026 13:23
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,659.70
4,529.90
Verified
Incorrect
-2.79%
Aug 28, 2026 10:23
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,649.80
4,529.90
Verified
Incorrect
-2.58%
Aug 28, 2026 10:08
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,650.20
4,529.90
Verified
Incorrect
-2.59%
Aug 28, 2026 09:52
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,637.40
4,529.90
Verified
Correct
-2.32%
Aug 28, 2026 09:30
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
Expired: no stored price within ±2h of maturity (2026-08-28 12:30 UTC) for GOLD
Aug 28, 2026 08:59
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,631.90
4,529.90
Verified
Correct
-2.20%
Aug 28, 2026 08:22
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
Expired: no stored price within ±2h of maturity (2026-08-28 11:22 UTC) for GOLD
Aug 28, 2026 08:15
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,633.90
4,529.90
Verified
Correct
-2.24%
Aug 28, 2026 06:38
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 60%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
Expired: no stored price within ±2h of maturity (2026-08-28 09:38 UTC) for GOLD
Aug 28, 2026 04:29
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,643.30
4,504.10
Verified
Correct
-3.00%
Aug 28, 2026 02:34
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 27, 2026 23:15
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 27, 2026 16:57
Rule-Based Analysis
Bearish 30%
4,633.10
4,656.30
Verified
Incorrect
+0.50%
Aug 27, 2026 15:54
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,647.50
4,643.30
Verified
Correct
-0.09%
Aug 27, 2026 14:58
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 27, 2026 14:26
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 70%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 27, 2026 12:47
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,651.10
4,656.10
Verified
Correct
+0.11%
Aug 27, 2026 10:26
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,655.00
4,649.80
Verified
Correct
-0.11%
Aug 27, 2026 10:02
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 30%
4,662.10
4,650.20
Verified
Correct
-0.26%
Aug 27, 2026 08:37
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 30%
4,675.50
4,632.70
Verified
Incorrect
-0.92%
Aug 27, 2026 08:23
Rule-Based Analysis
Bullish 30%
4,675.50
4,633.90
Verified
Incorrect
-0.89%
Aug 27, 2026 04:11
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
No price movement recorded for GOLD in the 2 days after its timeframe closed; the symbol appears to have no active price feed
Aug 27, 2026 02:48
Rule-Based Analysis
Neutral 50%
0.0015
—
Excluded from scoring
Excluded: no stored price within tolerance of this prediction's maturity, checked by rescore_expired_predictions
36.2%
34 correct of 94 verified predictions
Provider
Total
Correct
Accuracy
Rule-Based Analysis
not AI
87
31
35.6%
Timeframe
Total
Correct
Accuracy
24h 86
32
37.2%
6h 8
2
25.0%
Not ranked
✗
Bearish
Rule-Based Analysis
60% conf. · 6h
Sep 5, 2026 07:00
· Move: -0.02%
✗
Bearish
Rule-Based Analysis
60% conf. · 6h
Sep 5, 2026 05:01
· Move: 0.04%
✓
Neutral
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
71% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 21:35
· Move: -0.97%
✓
Bullish
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: 1.29%
✓
Bullish
Mistral Small Latest
60% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: 1.00%
✗
Bearish
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
62% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 06:00
· Move: -0.02%
✓
Bullish
Rule-Based Analysis
30% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 05:08
· Move: 1.56%
✗
Bearish
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
75% conf. · 6h
Sep 3, 2026 17:36
· Move: 0.52%
✗
Bearish
Rule-Based Analysis
30% conf. · 24h
Sep 3, 2026 17:36
· Move: 1.24%
✗
Neutral
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 6h
Sep 3, 2026 17:36
· Move: -1.21%
