Research methodology
How We Score AI Market Predictions
Every AI sentiment call on AnalystMarkets is logged when it is made and scored against the real market move once its timeframe closes. The rules below are deterministic, applied uniformly, and never edited after the fact.
Methodology version v1.0Scoring rules
- Every AI sentiment call is logged at the moment it is generated, with provider, symbol, sentiment, confidence, timeframe, and entry price.
- Bullish is scored correct only if the price rose more than 1% over the timeframe.
- Bearish is scored correct only if the price fell more than 1% over the timeframe.
- Neutral is scored correct only if the price stayed within a ±1% band.
- Outcomes are scored deterministically once the window closes — they are immutable and are never edited or deleted after the fact.
Timeframes
6 hours
Short-horizon reaction to a fresh catalyst.
24 hours
One-day follow-through after the call.
7 days
Weekly trend confirmation.
Exclusions
- Predictions whose timeframe has not yet elapsed are not counted.
- If reliable price data is unavailable when the window closes, the outcome is excluded entirely — never counted as correct or incorrect.
- A provider needs a minimum number of scored calls in a window before it is eligible to be ranked best or worst, so a single lucky call cannot dominate.
Data sources
- Live and historical market prices from multiple market-data providers.
- AI sentiment from the multi-provider analysis stack (Gemini, Groq, Mistral, DeepSeek, and OpenAI) plus a deterministic rule-based fallback.
- AI-enriched news headlines whose affected symbols overlap the research universe.
In detail
- Each AI sentiment outcome is logged at the moment of generation with: provider, symbol, sentiment (bullish/bearish/neutral), confidence, timeframe (6 h / 24 h / 7 d), and entry price.
- After the timeframe elapses, the actual market price is fetched and the real percentage move is computed.
- Bullish is correct only if price rose more than 1%. Bearish if price fell more than 1%. Neutral if price stayed within ±1% movement bands.
- If price data is unavailable, the outcome is excluded — never counted as correct or incorrect.
- Outcomes are scored deterministically once the window closes, are immutable, and are never edited or deleted.
Limitations
- Accuracy is measured over short, fixed timeframes — it is not a measure of long-term investment performance.
- Low-data windows (common early in a period) are surfaced honestly rather than hidden; small samples carry more noise.
- Outcomes reflect realized price moves only, and do not account for transaction costs, slippage, or position sizing.
This is research methodology, not investment advice.
Accuracy scores describe how AI sentiment calls performed over short, fixed timeframes. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always do your own research.