Related events
Stories on this asset that a model actually logged a call against.
Model agreement
13 open calls across the models tracking this asset.
Neutral
7 · 54%
Bullish
4 · 31%
Bearish
2 · 15%
The models do not agree. The split is shown rather than a single direction.
Mistral Small Latest Bullish Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral
Verification state
5489 of 10974 calls on this asset have reached a verdict
(50%).
Generated
10974
Awaiting evaluation
13
Verified
5489
Excluded
5472
How these are scored →
■
Neutral
7 of 13 open model calls on BTC record no directional lean. Average recorded confidence is 61%. Most were logged against a 7d window.
Agreement
7 of 13 open calls
Horizon
7d
Invalidating condition
The reading holds while price stays inside the observed 78,398.78 – 81,166.53 USD band; a close outside it would remove its basis.
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bearish
85% conf.
Sep 4 19:10 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bearish
60% conf.
Sep 4 18:17 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish
85% conf.
Sep 4 15:40 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral
75% conf.
Sep 4 12:50 · 6h
Generated
→
6h
→
Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral
75% conf.
Sep 4 08:58 · 24h
Generated
→
6h
→
24h
→
Verified
📈
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Over the last 30 days, AI sentiment for BTC skewed neutral (129 of 333 scored calls). The most accurate provider on this asset is FinBERT at 51.0% across 151 verified calls.
Provider track record
FinBERT
77/151 verified calls
51.0%
Mistral Small Latest
47/93 verified calls
50.5%
Llama 3.3 70B Versatile (Groq)
214/549 verified calls
39.0%
Rule-Based Analysis
57/160 verified calls
35.6%
Rule-Based Analysis
1591/4492 verified calls
35.4%
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
4/8 verified calls
Insufficient sample · n=8
Gemini 2.5 Flash
4/11 verified calls
Insufficient sample · n=11
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
8/25 verified calls
Insufficient sample · n=25
Confidence trend
66%
▲
32.4 pts vs previous week
Avg confidence across 169 calls in the last 7 days
What sources say
Neutral
129 articles
Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly historical trap could still trigger a crash to $62,000
IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth
Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges
Bullish
116 articles
Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high
BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction
Crypto Market Today, Sept. 3: Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000 on Fed Rate Pause Signals
Bearish
88 articles
Bitcoin falls below $80,000 as hot US payrolls revive Fed hike risk
Bitcoin slides below $80K as blockbuster jobs report raises Fed rate-hike odds
Parked Coldcard loot begins moving as attacker routes $1.6M in stolen Bitcoin to Ethereum
Every call logged on BTC, traced from the source that triggered it to the outcome it was scored against.
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 19:10
Direction Bearish
Confidence 85%
Reference price 79,459.00
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Bitcoin falls below $80,000 as hot US payrolls revive Fed hike risk
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Bearish · 85%
Generated
2026-09-04 16:10
AI inference
Bearish · 85%
Reference price
79,459
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299290
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 18:17
Direction Bearish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 79,149.00
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Bitcoin slides below $80K as blockbuster jobs report raises Fed rate-hike odds
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-04 15:17
AI inference
Bearish · 60%
Reference price
79,149
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299275
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 15:40
Direction Bullish
Confidence 85%
Reference price 79,846.00
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Bullish · 85%
Generated
2026-09-04 12:40
AI inference
Bullish · 85%
Reference price
79,846
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299255
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 12:50
Direction Neutral
Confidence 75%
Reference price 81,088.00
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly historical trap could still trigger a crash to $62,000
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Generated
2026-09-04 09:50
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Reference price
81,088
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299230
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 08:58
Direction Neutral
Confidence 75%
Reference price 80,853.08
Verification window 24h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Generated
2026-09-04 05:58
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Reference price
80,853.08
Verification window
24h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299205
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 08:42
Direction Bullish
Confidence 60%
Reference price 80,961.00
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction
Affected assets
BTC, IBIT
AI inference
Bullish · 60%
Generated
2026-09-04 05:42
AI inference
Bullish · 60%
Reference price
80,961
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299209
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Awaiting evaluation
Sep 4, 2026 08:10
Direction Neutral
Confidence 75%
Reference price 80,970.01
Verification window 24h
Outcome
Not yet due
Evidence
Claim
Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges
Affected assets
BTC, GLD, IBIT
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Generated
2026-09-04 05:10
AI inference
Neutral · 75%
Reference price
80,970.01
Verification window
24h
Actual outcome
Awaiting evaluation
Provenance
Provider Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Model version
Not recorded for this call
Methodology version
Scored before versions were recorded
Record
groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299197
Mistral Small Latest
Verified
Sep 4, 2026 04:17
Direction Neutral
Confidence 85%
Reference price 80,851.15
Verification window 6h
Outcome
Correct
+0.09%
Evidence
Claim
Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin's Rally Above 80,000 Hold?
Affected assets
BTC
AI inference
Neutral · 85%
Generated
2026-09-04 01:17
AI inference
Neutral · 85%
Reference price
80,851.15
Verification window
6h
Actual outcome
Correct · +0.09%
Provenance
Provider Mistral Small Latest
Model version
mistral-small-latest
Methodology version
v1.0
Record
mistral-small-latest #298974
10974 calls logged on BTC, newest first. Nothing is filtered out.
Logged model predictions for BTC
Logged
Provider
Direction
Confidence
Reference price
Evaluated price
Lifecycle
Outcome
Sep 4, 2026 19:10
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bearish 85%
79,459.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 18:17
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bearish 60%
79,149.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 15:40
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 85%
79,846.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 12:50
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 75%
81,088.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:58
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 75%
80,853.08
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:42
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 60%
80,961.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:10
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 75%
80,970.01
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 4, 2026 04:17
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
80,851.15
80,927.00
Verified
Correct
+0.09%
Sep 4, 2026 01:50
Mistral Small Latest
Bearish 95%
80,963.29
81,058.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.12%
Sep 4, 2026 01:19
Mistral Small Latest
Bearish 75%
81,395.00
81,063.00
Verified
Incorrect
-0.41%
Sep 4, 2026 01:14
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
81,360.00
80,916.00
Verified
Correct
-0.55%
Sep 4, 2026 01:06
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 60%
81,456.00
80,848.00
Verified
Correct
-0.75%
Sep 4, 2026 00:31
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 75%
81,608.00
80,871.00
Verified
Correct
-0.90%
Sep 4, 2026 00:06
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
81,458.00
80,928.00
Verified
Incorrect
-0.65%
Sep 3, 2026 23:39
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 70%
81,442.00
80,729.00
Verified
Incorrect
-0.88%
Sep 3, 2026 22:41
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 75%
81,461.00
80,851.15
Verified
Incorrect
-0.75%
Sep 3, 2026 22:23
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
81,535.00
80,851.15
Verified
Incorrect
-0.84%
Sep 3, 2026 22:03
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
81,250.00
80,924.28
Verified
Incorrect
-0.40%
Sep 3, 2026 21:07
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 95%
81,156.00
80,924.28
Verified
Incorrect
-0.29%
Sep 3, 2026 20:20
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 90%
81,055.00
81,231.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.22%
Sep 3, 2026 20:10
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 40%
81,030.00
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 3, 2026 19:38
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
80,835.00
81,127.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.36%
Sep 3, 2026 19:27
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 80%
80,662.00
79,471.00
Verified
Incorrect
-1.48%
Sep 3, 2026 19:24
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bearish 40%
80,802.00
81,277.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.59%
Sep 3, 2026 19:19
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 65%
80,802.00
81,395.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.73%
Sep 3, 2026 19:09
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 75%
81,078.00
81,459.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.47%
Sep 3, 2026 18:58
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 95%
81,177.00
81,621.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.55%
Sep 3, 2026 18:14
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
Bullish 75%
80,552.00
81,521.00
Verified
Correct
+1.20%
Sep 3, 2026 17:50
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
79,948.00
81,445.00
Verified
Incorrect
+1.87%
Sep 3, 2026 17:37
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 60%
81,144.01
—
Awaiting evaluation
Pending
Sep 3, 2026 16:59
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
78,804.00
79,349.00
Verified
Correct
+0.69%
Sep 3, 2026 15:32
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 65%
78,225.00
80,440.00
Verified
Incorrect
+2.83%
Sep 3, 2026 15:30
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 90%
77,933.00
80,989.00
Verified
Incorrect
+3.92%
Sep 3, 2026 14:43
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 75%
77,936.00
81,135.00
Verified
Incorrect
+4.10%
Sep 3, 2026 14:42
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 75%
77,878.00
81,270.00
Verified
Correct
+4.36%
Sep 3, 2026 14:19
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 75%
77,843.00
81,055.00
Verified
Correct
+4.13%
Sep 3, 2026 14:01
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 75%
77,700.00
80,924.00
Verified
Incorrect
+4.15%
Sep 3, 2026 13:29
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 90%
77,597.00
80,662.00
Verified
Correct
+3.95%
Sep 3, 2026 13:24
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 85%
77,612.00
80,835.00
Verified
Correct
+4.15%
Sep 3, 2026 13:15
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 65%
77,560.00
80,989.00
Verified
Correct
+4.42%
Sep 3, 2026 12:13
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 95%
77,865.00
80,552.00
Verified
Incorrect
+3.45%
Sep 3, 2026 12:11
Mistral Small Latest
Bullish 75%
77,775.00
81,107.00
Verified
Correct
+4.28%
Sep 3, 2026 12:00
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 55%
77,812.00
81,202.00
Verified
Incorrect
+4.36%
Sep 3, 2026 11:33
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 40%
77,924.00
80,966.00
Verified
Incorrect
+3.90%
Sep 3, 2026 10:45
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 85%
78,008.00
78,706.00
Verified
Correct
+0.89%
Sep 3, 2026 10:37
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 60%
77,889.00
78,611.00
Verified
Correct
+0.93%
Sep 3, 2026 10:01
Mistral Small Latest
Neutral 60%
77,779.00
78,671.00
Verified
Incorrect
+1.15%
Sep 3, 2026 08:50
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Bullish 75%
77,423.00
77,932.00
Verified
Incorrect
+0.66%
Sep 3, 2026 07:58
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 60%
77,707.00
77,604.00
Verified
Correct
-0.13%
Sep 3, 2026 07:22
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
Neutral 60%
77,577.00
77,612.00
Verified
Correct
+0.05%
36.5%
2002 correct of 5489 verified predictions
Provider
Total
Correct
Accuracy
FinBERT
151
77
51.0%
Mistral Small Latest
93
47
50.5%
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)
8
4
50.0%
Not ranked
Llama 3.3 70B Versatile (Groq)
549
214
39.0%
Gemini 2.5 Flash
11
4
36.4%
Not ranked
Rule-Based Analysis
not AI
4652
1648
35.4%
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
25
8
32.0%
Not ranked
Timeframe
Total
Correct
Accuracy
24h 4789
1712
35.7%
6h 683
283
41.4%
7d 17
7
41.2%
Not ranked
✓
Bullish
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: 4.15%
✗
Neutral
Mistral Small Latest
65% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: 2.83%
✗
Bearish
Mistral Small Latest
95% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: 0.12%
✗
Bullish
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
80% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 19:43
· Move: -1.48%
✓
Neutral
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: 0.09%
✓
Neutral
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)
60% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: -0.75%
✓
Neutral
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: -0.55%
✗
Bearish
Mistral Small Latest
75% conf. · 6h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: -0.41%
✓
Neutral
Mistral Small Latest
85% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: 0.69%
✓
Bullish
Mistral Small Latest
75% conf. · 24h
Sep 4, 2026 18:01
· Move: 4.36%
