BTC Bitcoin Crypto

79,353.00 USD +1.45% 7d

USD per coin

Market Open Data Live Stored snapshot (BTC) · 1 minute ago

Trend Down Sentiment Bearish

Range

24h 79,000.00 – 81,427.75

Volatility regime

Normal

2.49% daily deviation over 29 sessions

Back

AI Accuracy on BTC 36.4% 5,477 verified predictions View Leaderboard View accuracy history

What is moving BTC

Dominant narrative

Bitcoin volatility drops to 1.5th percentile as Fidelity flags ‘coiled spring’ setup

25 minutes ago · CryptoBriefing · Article tone: Neutral · Model direction: Bearish

Related events

Stories on this asset that a model actually logged a call against.

Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high Sep 4 · Bullish · Awaiting evaluation
Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but … Sep 4 · Neutral · Awaiting evaluation
IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth Sep 4 · Neutral · Awaiting evaluation
BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction Sep 4 · Bullish · Awaiting evaluation
Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence … Sep 4 · Neutral · Awaiting evaluation

Model agreement

23 open calls across the models tracking this asset.

Neutral 13 · 57%
Bullish 8 · 35%
Bearish 2 · 9%

The models do not agree. The split is shown rather than a single direction.

Mistral Small Latest Neutral
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral

Verification state

5477 of 10972 calls on this asset have reached a verdict (50%).

Generated 10972
Awaiting evaluation 23
Verified 5477
Excluded 5472

How these are scored

Observed bias

Neutral

13 of 23 open model calls on BTC record no directional lean. Average recorded confidence is 68%. Most were logged against a 24h window.

Agreement: 13 of 23 open calls
Confidence: 68% What confidence means
Horizon: 24h
Invalidating condition: The reading holds while price stays inside the observed 78,436.08 – 80,863.83 USD band; a close outside it would remove its basis.

Supporting evidence

Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) · Sep 4 15:40
Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly … Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) · Sep 4 12:50
IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) · Sep 4 08:58
BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) · Sep 4 08:42
Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) · Sep 4 08:10
Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin's Rally Above 80,000 Hold? Mistral Small Latest · Sep 4 04:17

A description of what the tracked models have logged. Not a recommendation, and not personalised to any reader.

Calls on this asset

How these are scored

Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Bullish 85% conf. Sep 4 15:40 · 6h

Generated 6h Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral 75% conf. Sep 4 12:50 · 6h

Generated 6h Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral 75% conf. Sep 4 08:58 · 24h

Generated 6h 24h Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Bullish 60% conf. Sep 4 08:42 · 6h

Generated 6h Verified
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Neutral 75% conf. Sep 4 08:10 · 24h

Generated 6h 24h Verified

Price Chart

📈

Loading chart for BTC...

Detailed Market Analysis

Key Levels

Support

78,436.08 USD

Resistance

80,863.83 USD

Volume & Momentum

Volume

Weak

0.8x avg

Momentum

-1.17%

Medium

Technical Context

RSI context

Market Sentiment

Bearish

Asset Intelligence Dossier

Timezone UTC

Over the last 30 days, AI sentiment for BTC skewed neutral (131 of 335 scored calls). The most accurate provider on this asset is FinBERT at 51.0% across 151 verified calls.

Provider track record

FinBERT

77/151 verified calls

51.0%

Mistral Small Latest

42/84 verified calls

50.0%

Llama 3.3 70B Versatile (Groq)

214/549 verified calls

39.0%

Rule-Based Analysis

57/160 verified calls

35.6%

Rule-Based Analysis

1591/4492 verified calls

35.4%

GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)

4/8 verified calls

Insufficient sample · n=8

Gemini 2.5 Flash

4/11 verified calls

Insufficient sample · n=11

Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

6/22 verified calls

Insufficient sample · n=22

Confidence trend

66%

▲ 31.7 pts vs previous week

Avg confidence across 168 calls in the last 7 days

What sources say

Neutral 131 articles

Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly historical trap could still trigger a crash to $62,000

IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth

Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges

Bullish 118 articles

Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high

BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction

Crypto Market Today, Sept. 3: Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000 on Fed Rate Pause Signals

Bearish 86 articles

Parked Coldcard loot begins moving as attacker routes $1.6M in stolen Bitcoin to Ethereum

Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Yet Be Over, Says Fidelity

Bitcoin experiences extreme fund flows for six consecutive days, a pattern that historically precedes price drops

BTC News Intelligence (8286 articles)

AI-curated news influencing BTC price, sentiment, and trend

Explore All BTC News with AI Analysis

Cryptocurrency ⭐ FEATURED

17 hours, 6 minutes ago

This Japanese company made money on Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, but sold them anyway to keep its $121 million Bitcoin holdings

The ¥878.8 million exit left its crypto portfolio Bitcoin-only, yet management may deploy the cash beyond crypto. The post This …

Impact on BTC: The altcoin sales could reduce short‑term demand for ETH, SOL and XRP, …

A Japanese company sold ¥878.8 million of Ethereum, Solana and XRP positions, leaving a portfolio … Medium (62%)

View full analysis →

CryptoSlate 62% confidence

Stocks

17 hours, 25 minutes ago

Crypto Market Today, Sept. 3: Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000 on Fed Rate Pause Signals

On Sept. 3, 2026, Fed Governor Waller said he may support holding rates steady, boosting crypto prices.

Impact on BTC: The statement may support crypto prices by reducing near-term expectations for aggressive …

On Sept. 3, 2026, Fed Governor Waller's statement suggesting potential support for holding interest rates … High (85%)

View full analysis →

The Motley Fool 85% confidence

Cryptocurrency

17 hours, 52 minutes ago

Bitcoin Surges Above Key Moving Average, Key Resistance About to Crack

Bitcoin has decisively reclaimed its closely watched 50-week moving average.

Impact on BTC: The reclaiming of the 50-week moving average could attract technical traders and …

Bitcoin has moved above its 50-week moving average, a technical level often monitored by traders … High (70%)

View full analysis →

U.Today 70% confidence

Cryptocurrency

18 hours, 49 minutes ago

Block reports $433M in unrealized Bitcoin gains under Dorsey

Block's unwavering Bitcoin strategy amid volatility highlights its commitment to crypto, potentially influencing fintech's future investment trends. The post Block …

Impact on BTC: The reported gains provide a concrete data point on how public fintech …

Block reported $433 million in unrealized Bitcoin gains, reflecting the company's continued commitment to a … High (75%)

View full analysis →

CryptoBriefing 75% confidence

Economy

19 hours, 8 minutes ago

Why Is Bitcoin Up Today?

A Federal Reserve governor signaled that interest rates may stay where they are, helping Bitcoin recover from its slide earlier …

Impact on BTC: The signal from the Federal Reserve governor may reduce near-term rate hike …

A Federal Reserve governor's indication that interest rates may remain unchanged contributed to Bitcoin's recovery … High (85%)

View full analysis →

Yahoo Finance 85% confidence

Stocks

19 hours, 28 minutes ago

Why Is Bitcoin Up Today?

A Federal Reserve governor signaled that interest rates may stay where they are, helping Bitcoin recover from its slide earlier …

Impact on BTC: The signal from the Federal Reserve governor may reduce near-term rate hike …

A Federal Reserve governor's indication that interest rates may remain unchanged contributed to Bitcoin's recovery … High (85%)

View full analysis →

The Motley Fool 85% confidence

AI evidence

Every call logged on BTC, traced from the source that triggered it to the outcome it was scored against.

Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 15:40

Claim

Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high

Direction
Bullish

Confidence
85%

Reference price
79,846.00

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source CryptoBriefing

Claim Crypto stages major rally as Fed rate hopes send Bitcoin to four-month high

Affected assets BTC

AI inference Bullish · 85%

Generated 2026-09-04 12:40

AI inference Bullish · 85%

Reference price 79,846

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299255
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 12:50

Claim

Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly …

Direction
Neutral

Confidence
75%

Reference price
81,088.00

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source CryptoSlate

Claim Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly historical trap could still trigger a crash to $62,000

Affected assets BTC

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Generated 2026-09-04 09:50

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Reference price 81,088

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299230
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 08:58

Claim

IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth

Direction
Neutral

Confidence
75%

Reference price
80,853.08

Verification window
24h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source BeInCrypto

Claim IMF Says Donations, Not Public Funds, Drove El Salvador Bitcoin Growth

Affected assets BTC

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Generated 2026-09-04 05:58

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Reference price 80,853.08

Verification window 24h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299205
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 08:42

Claim

BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction

Direction
Bullish

Confidence
60%

Reference price
80,961.00

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source CryptoBriefing

Claim BlackRock clients purchase $454M worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction

Affected assets BTC, IBIT

AI inference Bullish · 60%

Generated 2026-09-04 05:42

AI inference Bullish · 60%

Reference price 80,961

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299209
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 08:10

Claim

Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges

Direction
Neutral

Confidence
75%

Reference price
80,970.01

Verification window
24h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source CryptoSlate

Claim Bitcoin’s volatility ratio against gold collapses to 6-year low as traditional safe haven turbulence surges

Affected assets BTC, GLD, IBIT

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Generated 2026-09-04 05:10

AI inference Neutral · 75%

Reference price 80,970.01

Verification window 24h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

groq-reasoning-qwen/qwen3.8-27b #299197
Mistral Small Latest Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 04:17

Claim

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin's Rally Above 80,000 Hold?

Direction
Neutral

Confidence
85%

Reference price
80,851.15

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source BeInCrypto

Claim Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin's Rally Above 80,000 Hold?

Affected assets BTC

AI inference Neutral · 85%

Generated 2026-09-04 01:17

AI inference Neutral · 85%

Reference price 80,851.15

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Mistral Small Latest

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

mistral-small-latest #298974
Mistral Small Latest Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 01:50

Claim

Parked Coldcard loot begins moving as attacker routes $1.6M in stolen Bitcoin to Ethereum

Direction
Bearish

Confidence
95%

Reference price
80,963.29

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source CryptoSlate

Claim Parked Coldcard loot begins moving as attacker routes $1.6M in stolen Bitcoin to Ethereum

Affected assets BTC, ETH

AI inference Bearish · 95%

Generated 2026-09-03 22:50

AI inference Bearish · 95%

Reference price 80,963.29

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Mistral Small Latest

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

mistral-small-latest #299034
Mistral Small Latest Awaiting evaluation Sep 4, 2026 01:19

Claim

Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Yet Be Over, Says Fidelity

Direction
Bearish

Confidence
75%

Reference price
81,395.00

Verification window
6h

Outcome

Not yet due

Evidence

Source Bitcoin Magazine

Claim Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Yet Be Over, Says Fidelity

Affected assets BTC, COIN, MSTR

AI inference Bearish · 75%

Generated 2026-09-03 22:19

AI inference Bearish · 75%

Reference price 81,395

Verification window 6h

Actual outcome Awaiting evaluation

Provenance

Provider
Mistral Small Latest

Model version

Not recorded for this call

Methodology version

Scored before versions were recorded

Record

mistral-small-latest #298917

Prediction history

10972 calls logged on BTC, newest first. Nothing is filtered out.

Logged model predictions for BTC
Logged	Provider	Direction	Confidence	Reference price	Evaluated price	Lifecycle	Outcome
Sep 4, 2026 15:40	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	85%	79,846.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 12:50	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	75%	81,088.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:58	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	75%	80,853.08	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:42	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	60%	80,961.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 08:10	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	75%	80,970.01	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 04:17	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	85%	80,851.15	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 01:50	Mistral Small Latest	Bearish	95%	80,963.29	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 01:19	Mistral Small Latest	Bearish	75%	81,395.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 01:14	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	85%	81,360.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 01:06	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	60%	81,456.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 4, 2026 00:31	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	75%	81,608.00	80,871.00	Verified	Correct -0.90%
Sep 4, 2026 00:06	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	85%	81,458.00	80,928.00	Verified	Incorrect -0.65%
Sep 3, 2026 23:39	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	70%	81,442.00	80,729.00	Verified	Incorrect -0.88%
Sep 3, 2026 22:41	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	75%	81,461.00	80,851.15	Verified	Incorrect -0.75%
Sep 3, 2026 22:23	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	85%	81,535.00	80,851.15	Verified	Incorrect -0.84%
Sep 3, 2026 22:03	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	85%	81,250.00	80,924.28	Verified	Incorrect -0.40%
Sep 3, 2026 21:07	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	95%	81,156.00	80,924.28	Verified	Incorrect -0.29%
Sep 3, 2026 20:20	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	90%	81,055.00	81,231.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.22%
Sep 3, 2026 20:10	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	40%	81,030.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 19:38	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	85%	80,835.00	81,127.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.36%
Sep 3, 2026 19:27	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	80%	80,662.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 19:24	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bearish	40%	80,802.00	81,277.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.59%
Sep 3, 2026 19:19	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	65%	80,802.00	81,395.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.73%
Sep 3, 2026 19:09	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	75%	81,078.00	81,459.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.47%
Sep 3, 2026 18:58	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	95%	81,177.00	81,621.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.55%
Sep 3, 2026 18:14	GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)	Bullish	75%	80,552.00	81,521.00	Verified	Correct +1.20%
Sep 3, 2026 17:50	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	85%	79,948.00	81,445.00	Verified	Incorrect +1.87%
Sep 3, 2026 17:37	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	60%	81,144.01	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 16:59	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	85%	78,804.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 15:32	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	65%	78,225.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 15:30	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	90%	77,933.00	80,989.00	Verified	Incorrect +3.92%
Sep 3, 2026 14:43	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	75%	77,936.00	81,135.00	Verified	Incorrect +4.10%
Sep 3, 2026 14:42	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	75%	77,878.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 14:19	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	75%	77,843.00	81,055.00	Verified	Correct +4.13%
Sep 3, 2026 14:01	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	75%	77,700.00	80,924.00	Verified	Incorrect +4.15%
Sep 3, 2026 13:29	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	90%	77,597.00	80,662.00	Verified	Correct +3.95%
Sep 3, 2026 13:24	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	85%	77,612.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 13:15	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	65%	77,560.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 12:13	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	95%	77,865.00	80,552.00	Verified	Incorrect +3.45%
Sep 3, 2026 12:11	Mistral Small Latest	Bullish	75%	77,775.00	81,107.00	Verified	Correct +4.28%
Sep 3, 2026 12:00	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	55%	77,812.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 11:33	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	40%	77,924.00	80,966.00	Verified	Incorrect +3.90%
Sep 3, 2026 10:45	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	85%	78,008.00	78,706.00	Verified	Correct +0.89%
Sep 3, 2026 10:37	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	60%	77,889.00	78,611.00	Verified	Correct +0.93%
Sep 3, 2026 10:01	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	60%	77,779.00	78,671.00	Verified	Incorrect +1.15%
Sep 3, 2026 08:50	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	75%	77,423.00	77,932.00	Verified	Incorrect +0.66%
Sep 3, 2026 07:58	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	60%	77,707.00	77,604.00	Verified	Correct -0.13%
Sep 3, 2026 07:22	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Neutral	60%	77,577.00	77,612.00	Verified	Correct +0.05%
Sep 3, 2026 04:04	Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	Bullish	40%	77,311.00	—	Awaiting evaluation	Pending
Sep 3, 2026 03:01	Mistral Small Latest	Neutral	50%	77,051.00	77,782.00	Verified	Correct +0.95%

36.4% 1995 correct of 5477 verified predictions

Per-provider accuracy

Provider	Total	Correct	Accuracy
FinBERT	151	77	51.0%
Mistral Small Latest	84	42	50.0%
GPT-OSS 120B (Groq)	8	4	50.0% Not ranked
Llama 3.3 70B Versatile (Groq)	549	214	39.0%
Gemini 2.5 Flash	11	4	36.4% Not ranked
Rule-Based Analysis not AI	4652	1648	35.4%
Qwen3.8 27B (Groq)	22	6	27.3% Not ranked

By timeframe

Timeframe	Total	Correct	Accuracy
24h	4782	1708	35.7%
6h	678	280	41.3%
7d	17	7	41.2% Not ranked

Recent verified predictions

✓

Bullish Mistral Small Latest 75% conf. · 24h

Sep 4, 2026 17:17 · Move: 4.28%

✗

Neutral Qwen3.8 27B (Groq) 40% conf. · 24h

Sep 4, 2026 17:17 · Move: 3.90%

✗