Bonds Are Heeding Warsh’s Hawkish Tone and Making It Harder for the Stock Market

The moves suggested a reset for U.S. Treasury yields tied to the surprisingly hawkish tone established by new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh last week, who hinted toward near-term rate hikes to tame price pressures and break a long run of missed inflation targets. “We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed’s long-stated inflation goal of 2% that’s been going on for more than five years,” Warsh told reporters in Washington last week after his first press event as Fed chairman. The Fed’s economic forecasts slashed 2026 GDP predictions to 2.2%, and added 90 basis points to its headline PCE inflation estimate, taking it to 3.6%.