A Barrel Trapped Behind Hormuz Isn't Spare Capacity

At the start of 2026, oil traders were preparing for a glut. Supply growth was expected to outpace demand growth. OPEC+ was gradually returning barrels to the market. U.S. production remained near record highs. Economic growth was slowing, while electrification and efficiency gains were expected to temper consumption growth. The consensus view was simple: the world was heading into a period of excess supply. Six months later, that narrative never came true. Not because the world suddenly ran out of oil. In fact, many major producers are pumping…