Why Hasn’t Oil Hit $150?

I think most energy analysts would have been shocked to learn that roughly three months into a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil would be trading at just over $100 a barrel. I certainly expected prices to be significantly higher by now. The physical math seems indisputable: take that much supply off the market, and prices should respond quickly and decisively. Oil prices have risen sharply, to be clear. But we are still short of the levels seen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, or of the all-time highs set just before…