OPEC Will Survive UAE Exit, But Medium-Term Supply Threat Is Real

The OPEC and OPEC+ groups are not expected to falter following the abrupt, but not necessarily surprising, exit of one of the biggest producers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to consultancy Energy Aspects. In a surprise announcement on Tuesday, the UAE said it is quitting OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1 to pursue its national interests. For years, the UAE has been working to boost its crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, and has frequently clashed with its fellow OPEC and OPEC+…