Bitcoin sold off first when the U.S.-Iran war began. Two weeks later, it's outperforming nearly everything

Summary

Bitcoin has outperformed most assets since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, with each escalation leading to smaller drawdowns in the cryptocurrency's price. This suggests that bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold. The reduced drawdowns indicate a growing resilience in bitcoin's price amidst geopolitical tensions.

Market Context

The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has led to a decrease in bitcoin's price volatility in response to escalations, with each subsequent drawdown being smaller than the last. This has resulted in bitcoin outperforming nearly all other assets over the two-week period, potentially signaling a shift in investor perception of bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical tensions and their impact on traditional assets
• Increasing perception of bitcoin as a safe-haven asset
• Reduced price volatility in response to conflict escalations

Risks

• Escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict leading to unforeseen market consequences
• Shift in investor sentiment away from safe-haven assets

Time Horizon

Short Term