Bitcoin nears cycle bottom as over half of supply is held at a loss, says K33
Affected assets and topics
Why it matters
K33 research indicates that over half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held at a loss, a historical metric that has consistently preceded cycle bottoms within weeks, followed by strong one-year returns in most previous cycles.
- Historical on-chain metric signaling cycle bottom
- Potential for contrarian capital inflow into BTC
- Expectation of strong one-year returns post-bottom
Article tone
Expected market reaction
This analysis suggests Bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing a significant price bottom, potentially attracting contrarian capital and signaling an impending reversal from current price levels. Historically, this metric has led to upward price action over the medium-term, potentially drawing new investment into the crypto market.
Risks
- Historical patterns may not repeat due to differing macroeconomic conditions or market structure
- Further price declines could occur before a definitive bottom is established
- The 'within weeks' timeframe is not precise and could extend
Evidence trail
Evidence
AI provenance
Technical identifiers
- Provider tag
- gemini-2.5-flash
- Analysis version
- gemini-2.5-flash
- Article id
- 104561
- Timeframe
- 24h
Prediction lifecycle
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Gemini 2.5 Flash BTC Bullish 75%Generated 6h 24h Excluded
Expired: not evaluated within 7 days of its 24h timeframe elapsing
Logged at publication, scored automatically once the window closes — never edited.
Original source
K33 said Bitcoin has historically bottomed within weeks of more than half of its circulating supply being held at a loss, with strong one-year returns following in most previous cycles.
Read the full article on CoinTelegraph
Original article published by CoinTelegraph on July 7, 2026. Analysis and insights provided by AnalystMarkets AI.
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