The Worst Year to Retire Wasn’t 1929. The Creator of the 4% Retirement Rule Says It Was 1968.
Why it matters
According to William Bengen, creator of the 4% retirement rule, 1968 was the worst year to retire due to a prolonged bear market lasting until the early 1980s. This historical insight has implications for retirement planning and portfolio management. The finding highlights the importance of considering market conditions when planning for retirement.
- retirement planning strategies
- portfolio allocation decisions
- market condition considerations
Expected market reaction
The article's focus on the 1968 retirement scenario may lead to increased caution among investors approaching retirement, potentially resulting in a shift towards more conservative portfolio allocations. This could have a neutral to slightly bearish impact on equity markets, particularly those with high valuations, as investors prioritize capital preservation over growth.
Risks
- overly conservative portfolio shifts leading to missed growth opportunities
- inadequate consideration of individual financial circumstances
Evidence trail
Evidence
AI provenance
Technical identifiers
- Provider tag
- groq-llama-3.3-70b-versatile
- Analysis version
- groq-llama-3.3-70b-versatile
- Article id
- 72923
Original source
Bull markets come and go. Barron’s asked financial researcher and author William Bengen, who conceived the 4% rule for safe portfolio withdrawals, to calculate the worst time to retire over the past century. Retirees in 1968 fared worse when stocks encountered a prolonged bear market that persisted until the early 1980s.
Read the full article on Yahoo Finance
Original article published by Yahoo Finance on April 19, 2026. Analysis and insights provided by AnalystMarkets AI.