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The Worst Year to Retire Wasn’t 1929. The Creator of the 4% Retirement Rule Says It Was 1968.
Market Intelligence Analysis
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Why This Matters
According to William Bengen, creator of the 4% retirement rule, 1968 was the worst year to retire due to a prolonged bear market lasting until the early 1980s. This historical insight has implications for retirement planning and portfolio management. The finding highlights the importance of considering market conditions when planning for retirement.
Market Context
The article's focus on the 1968 retirement scenario may lead to increased caution among investors approaching retirement, potentially resulting in a shift towards more conservative portfolio allocations. This could have a neutral to slightly bearish impact on equity markets, particularly those with high valuations, as investors prioritize capital preservation over growth.
Sentiment
Neutral
AI Confidence
50%
Time Horizon
Long Term
Article Context
Note: This is a brief excerpt for context. Click below to read the full article on the original source.
Bull markets come and go. Barron’s asked financial researcher and author William Bengen, who conceived the 4% rule for safe portfolio withdrawals, to calculate the worst time to retire over the past century. Retirees in 1968 fared worse when stocks encountered a prolonged bear market that persisted until the early 1980s.
AI Breakdown
Summary
According to William Bengen, creator of the 4% retirement rule, 1968 was the worst year to retire due to a prolonged bear market lasting until the early 1980s. This historical insight has implications for retirement planning and portfolio management. The finding highlights the importance of considering market conditions when planning for retirement.
Market Context
The article's focus on the 1968 retirement scenario may lead to increased caution among investors approaching retirement, potentially resulting in a shift towards more conservative portfolio allocations. This could have a neutral to slightly bearish impact on equity markets, particularly those with high valuations, as investors prioritize capital preservation over growth.
Key Drivers
- retirement planning strategies
- portfolio allocation decisions
- market condition considerations
Risks
- overly conservative portfolio shifts leading to missed growth opportunities
- inadequate consideration of individual financial circumstances
Time Horizon
Long Term
Original article published by
Yahoo Finance
on April 19, 2026.
Analysis and insights provided by AnalystMarkets AI.
Analysis and insights provided by AnalystMarkets AI.