Weak US Job Data Could Lift Stocks, Says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Investors are looking to the data for clues on whether the Fed is close to being done easing monetary policy, after three straight cuts, or if it needs to move more aggressively. “We are now firmly back in a good is bad/bad is good regime,” Wilson wrote in a note, explaining that a buoyant labor market, while good for the economy, would lower the probability of rate cuts going into 2026. Delayed monthly employment numbers are due on Tuesday, with economists projecting a 50,000 increase in payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate, consistent with a sluggish, but not rapidly deteriorating, labor market.