Trump Cannot Just Win the Strait. He Has to Win the Oil Curve

The U.S.-Iran war has created a military crisis in the Gulf. But for oil markets, the more dangerous battlefield may now be the futures curve. The first shock was geographic. It appeared on maps, vessel-tracking screens, insurance desks, and refinery procurement calls: the Strait of Hormuz restricted, tankers delayed, Gulf exports impaired, and refiners scrambling for replacement barrels. The second shock is financial. It is moving through hedge books, margin accounts, cargo-finance lines, refinery schedules, LNG contracts, diesel inventories,…