Policy Failure Is Dragging Ecuador’s Oil Sector Lower

Ecuador, once a stable mid-tier oil producer in Latin America, is now facing a structural energy decline that is increasingly spilling over into regional instability. Production has fallen sharply in recent years, dropping to around 349,000 barrels per day in 2025, an 8.5% annual decline, while fuel imports have surged, further deepening external dependence. This is not the result of resource depletion. Ecuador still holds very significant reserves and untapped potential. Rather, the country’s decline is the consequence of policy fragmentation,…