U.S. Inflation Expectations Surge Amid Oil Price Spikes

Inflation expectations are currently trending north, driven by the unraveling oil price shock, with a roughly 70% surge in crude oil prices this year driven by the Middle East war, intensifying fears of a renewed inflation spurt. The U.S. one-year inflation swap rate has recently surged above 3%, marking its highest level since late 2025. A recent Bank of America survey found that 45% of fund managers now expect higher global inflation over the next year, a sharp rise from just 9% a month ago. The survey indicates that market participants expect…