Central Asia's $39 Billion Black Hole: Unregistered Trade Surges

A review of data compiled by Chinese, Kazakh and Kyrgyz government agencies reveal large discrepancies in trade volume, raising questions about widespread smuggling and sanctions-busting. Trade in general has experienced explosive growth since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the data shows. In 2025, China reported supplying $48.7 billion worth of goods and services to Kazakhstan and $27.2 billion to Kyrgyzstan, whereas Kazakhstan only reported receiving $34.1 billion from the PRC and Kyrgyzstan $5 billion. The gaps indicate that tens of billions…