Russia Turns Asia’s Oil Shock Into an Indonesian Opening

Russia has emerged as one of the clearest commercial beneficiaries of the US-Israel war with Iran. Before March 2026, buying Russian crude was widely treated as a sanctions risk that only Chinese and, to a lesser extent, Indian private companies could comfortably absorb. The first US waiver for Russian barrels, announced on March 12, changed that calculation. It showed that, during a major Middle Eastern supply disruption, Asia could not balance its oil market without Russian crude, and even Washington was aware of the that. Successive waiver extensions…