Fed’s Williams Says He’d Discount Bond Market’s Neutral-Rate Estimate

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Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expressed skepticism about the bond market's estimate of the US neutral interest rate, suggesting he would discount it due to past unreliability.

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Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams cautioned about model estimates of the US neutral interest rate, saying, “the bond market is suggesting much higher r-stars, but I would discount that a bit because they’ve tended not to be reliable.” Williams spoke Thursday during an event organized by Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Original article published by Bloomberg on November 6, 2025.
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