HSBC is sticking with the bear case on balances, saying OPEC+ will pick up the pace of quota increases in Q2–Q3 2026 as the group leans back into market share. The call lands two days after OPEC+ signed off on a small 137,000 bpd hike for December and—crucially—a pause on further hikes in January–March 2026, a tactical nod to soft seasonal demand and growing surplus chatter. On the facts: eight core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—are the ones adjusting volumes,…