UBS Now Sees Private Credit Defaults Reaching 15% in Worst Case

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UBS analysts have revised their worst-case scenario for private credit defaults, now predicting a 15% default rate, a significant increase from their previous outlook.

Market Impact

Market impact analysis based on bearish sentiment with 90% confidence.

Sentiment
Bearish
AI Confidence
90%
Time Horizon
Short Term

Article Context

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A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out a worst-case scenario for defaults in the private credit sector. Their outlook is even more grim now.

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Original article published by Bloomberg on February 25, 2026.
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