Central Asia's $39 Billion Black Hole: Unregistered Trade Surges

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Why This Matters

A recent review of trade data in Central Asia reveals large discrepancies, suggesting widespread smuggling and sanctions-busting, with China's trade with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan showing significant unreported volumes.

Market Impact

Market impact analysis based on bearish sentiment with 78% confidence.

Sentiment
Bearish
AI Confidence
78%
Time Horizon
Short Term

Article Context

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A review of data compiled by Chinese, Kazakh and Kyrgyz government agencies reveal large discrepancies in trade volume, raising questions about widespread smuggling and sanctions-busting. Trade in general has experienced explosive growth since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the data shows. In 2025, China reported supplying $48.7 billion worth of goods and services to Kazakhstan and $27.2 billion to Kyrgyzstan, whereas Kazakhstan only reported receiving $34.1 billion from the PRC and Kyrgyzstan $5 billion. The gaps indicate that tens of billions…

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Original article published by OilPrice.com on February 24, 2026.
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