Citi Downplays Risk of a Major Iran Supply Shock

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Citi's commodity analysts predict limited military action against Iran, downplaying the risk of a major oil supply disruption, but still expect the geopolitical premium to impact oil prices.

Market Impact

Market impact analysis based on neutral sentiment with 70% confidence.

Sentiment
Neutral
AI Confidence
70%
Time Horizon
Short Term

Article Context

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Citi commodity analysts have downplayed the risk of a major oil supply disruption from the latest U.S. escalation against Iran, predicting limited military action against the country from the U.S. together with Israel. That said, however, Citi expects developments in the Middle East to keep the geopolitical premium on oil prices, citing potential tanker seizures among the options considered by Washington, Reuters reported. Brent crude settled above $70 per barrel for the first time in months on Thursday, with the rally fueled by the Iran escalation…

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Original article published by OilPrice.com on January 30, 2026.
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