As 2026 begins, energy markets are reacting less to supply outages than to how governments are choosing to act. The removal of Venezuela’s president, instability along the Red Sea, and rising uncertainty around Iran have altered assumptions about restraint, escalation, and control. This piece examines four locations where those changes are already influencing energy risk. Venezuela: Decapitation Without Control The headlining news, of course, is that Nicolás Maduro has been captured during a U.S. military and intelligence operation,…