Russia Faces Sharp Drop in Oil Tax Revenue at Start of 2026

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Why This Matters

Russia's oil tax revenue is expected to drop sharply in 2026, with a 16% decline from December and a 50% decline from January 2025, posing a significant challenge to the government's budget and military funding.

Market Impact

Market impact analysis based on bearish sentiment with 86% confidence.

Sentiment
Bearish
AI Confidence
86%

Article Context

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Russia is heading into 2026 with a familiar problem wearing a sharper edge: the oil revenues that bankroll its budget — and its war — are shrinking fast. According to Reuters calculations released Friday, Russia’s tax proceeds from crude oil production in January could fall to about 380 billion roubles ($4.7 billion), the lowest monthly take since late 2022. That would mark a 16% drop from December and a collapse of more than 50% compared with January last year. For a government that still leans heavily on oil income to fund military…

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Original article published by OilPrice.com on December 19, 2025.
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