California’s experiment in climate governance has turned the state’s oil and refining sector into one of the most politically charged energy battlegrounds in the world. A long-standing commitment to environmental targets – culminating in a planned end to oil extraction by 2045 – has collided with the realities of high demand, aging infrastructure, and a shrinking refining base. Oil output has already plunged from 760,000 b/d in 2000 to roughly 250,000 b/d in 2025, while the number of operational refineries has fallen from…