Why Oil Markets Remain on Edge Despite Ceasefire

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced overnight has taken the panic premium out of oil – but not the full risk premium. Prices are not snapping back to pre-war levels due to the scale of disruption and backlog-clearing mechanisms that will take some time to normalize. Futures have moved and, as a result, Rystad Energy has reduced its average Brent price from $97 to average $87 for 2026. However, the tightness in the physical barrels is unlikely to be cleared anytime soon. Oil plunged below US$100 per barrel after the US and Iran agreed…