How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger a Global Fertilizer Shock

The trade of global fertilizer and ammonia faces intense pressure due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran remain uncertain. Rystad Energy’s 2025 trade mapping shows that the sale of 15% of global ammonia and 21% of urea, which is used as a high-nitrogen fertilizer, are tied to exporters potentially impacted by the closure. This includes leading producers Saudi Arabia and Qatar, followed by Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Iran and Iraq. Our analysis predicts this sustained logistics shock…