To help navigate the uncertainty, we have framed five possible scenarios, detailed below, that outline plausible pathways, from diplomatic normalization to severe destabilization, and assess their consequences for geopolitics and global oil markets. Only a week ago, the balance of risks appeared tilted towards military action. More recently, intensified diplomatic engagement and signalling from both Washington and Tehran have shifted expectations toward a less confrontational path. That said, developments can unfold quickly, and the probability…