The timeline of the US–Venezuela conflict highlights a long-term strategy centered on securing heavy crude supplies for US Gulf Coast refineries, which are configured to process heavy sour barrels and benefit from Venezuela’s ability to deliver crude over short lead times. This will reduce reliance on Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) for the US. Exports of Venezuela crude are expected to recover slowly toward the US, Europe and India, leaving China disadvantaged, while OPEC+ remains defensive. US Gulf Coast refineries process…