Russia’s warnings to Europe this week line up with the way it is conducting this war. Moscow is trying to raise the background risk level for EU states as they debate deeper support for Ukraine’s long-range and industrial needs. The objective is not a direct clash with NATO but to push some buttons for leverage with three tactics: cyber activity against energy systems, probing around offshore assets, and irregular pressure in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean. European capitals are already adjusting. They are treating this as…